On the Existence and Convergence of Computable Universal Priors
Author: Marcus Hutter.
Source: Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence Vol. 2842,
2003, 298 - 312.
Abstract.
Solomonoff unified Occam's razor and Epicurus'
principle of multiple explanations to one elegant, formal,
universal theory of inductive inference, which initiated the
field of algorithmic information theory. His central result
is that the posterior of his universal semimeasure M
converges rapidly to the true sequence generating posterior
,
if the latter is computable. Hence, M is eligible as a
universal predictor in case of unknown .
We investigate
the existence and convergence of computable universal
(semi)measures for a hierarchy of computability classes:
finitely computable, estimable, enumerable, and
approximable. For instance, M is known to be enumerable,
but not finitely computable, and to dominate all
enumerable semimeasures. We define seven classes of
(semi)measures based on these four computability
concepts. Each class may or may not contain a
(semi)measure which dominates all elements of another
class. The analysis of these 49 cases can be reduced to four
basic cases, two of them being new. We also investigate
more closely the types of convergence, possibly implied by
universality: in difference and in ratio, with probability 1,
in mean sum, and for Martin-Löf random sequences. We
introduce a generalized concept of randomness for
individual sequences and use it to exhibit difficulties
regarding these issues.
©Copyright 2003 Springer
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