Non-asymptotic Calibration and Resolution

Author: Vladimir Vovk

Source: Algorithmic Learning Theory, 16th International Conference, ALT 2005, Singapore, October 2005, Proceedings, (Sanjay Jain, Hans Ulrich Simon and Etsuji Tomita, Eds.), Lecture Notes in Artificial Intelligence 3734, pp. 429 - 443, Springer 2005.

Abstract. We analyze a new algorithm for probability forecasting of binary labels, without making any assumptions about the way the data is generated. The algorithm is shown to be well calibrated and to have high resolution for big enough data sets and for a suitable choice of its parameter, a kernel on the Cartesian product of the forecast space [0,1] and the object space. Our results are non-asymptotic: we establish explicit inequalities for the performance of the algorithm.

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